1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a hurricane warning is in effect. Residents should execute their hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the Florida east coast by early next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds, and rainfall is possible in portions of Florida into next week, including the possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the Florida peninsula.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.

WHAT'S NEW:

None

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstorm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: [TOP] Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 71.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west-northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Saturday. Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 948 mb (28.00 inches).

The cloud pattern of Dorian has become quite impressive in infrared satellite imagery this evening. The eye has become very distinct and is surrounded by a very symmetric ring of deep convection. The upper-level outflow has also improved. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this evening has measured peak SFMR winds of 119 kt, and a dropsonde dropped in the northeastern eyewall had mean winds in the lowest 150 m that also supported winds of 118 kt, so the initial wind speed has been raised to 120 kt. The latest center drop indicates a minimum pressure of around 948 mb, down 22 mb since this afternoon. Since Dorian will be traversing SSTs of around 29C and remain in a low shear environment, the current intensification phase may not be over. The NHC forecast is above the guidance and calls for some additional strengthening in the short-term. After that, fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles that are difficult to predict. Although some decrease in wind speed could occur when Dorian slows down and causes some upwelling, all indications are that Dorian will remain an extremely powerful hurricane for the next several days.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 9 kt. The ridge to the north of Dorian is expected to build during the next 24 hours, and this should cause Dorian's heading to bend westward toward the northwestern Bahamas. After 48 hours, the global models show an erosion of the western portion of the ridge, which is expected to cause the steering currents to collapse and the hurricane to slow down considerably by day 3. Later in the period, the models have again trended to a more significant weakness in the ridge which allows Dorian to turn northwestward, then northward near the east coast of Florida. Although the deterministic versions of the global models have trended northeastward again, the GFS and UKMET ensemble means are farther to the left. The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged northeastward and lies between the multi-model consensus aids and the aforementioned ensemble means. Although the official forecast track has been nudged northeastward to near the east coast of Florida the risk of significant impacts over much of the Florida peninsula remains high.